Is Apple waiting for Zune?

I’ve been considering two facts. One that Microsoft is moving into the portable media player market currently dominated by Apple, and two, that Apple has not released a new model of it’s iPod in quite some time. Are these two things related? I’m beginning to think they could be.

First, this move by Microsoft is no surprise to Apple. Steve Jobs even predicted that Microsoft would eventually move in this direction and Apple has no doubt been aware of Microsoft’s general schedule to market for it’s Zune device. With no new recent innovations to the iPod it appears that Apple is a setting duck for Microsoft to introduce it’s Zune with capabilities custom tailored to be spec-by-spec more capable. Or is there a sucker punch waiting Microsoft’s move? If Microsoft introduces Zune against the old iPod line and Apple follows immediately with it’s own new and improved iPod the Zune will have a short live period of superiority. It will be new and yet outdated almost immediately. If Apple releases a much improved iPod just prior or near to the same time as the Zune then Microsoft could come off looking like it missed the target right out of the gate. In either case, a close release date of a superior iPod by Apple would not give Microsoft time to react in any positive way.

Of course this could only happen if Apple has new much improved iPods nearly ready for market. While there are many rumors no one knows if this is so, or at least no one really knows that’s willing to speak. Robert Scoble made an interesting side comment in one of his blog post the other day:

Speaking of Apple, they are readying a dizzying amount of new products. I wish I could camp out at an Apple store during the World Wide Developer Conference on August 7th. I wish I could say more, but thatd get me sued by Steve Jobs and I dont need that kind of heck right now.

Robert could just be talking in general or these new products may not even be iPod related. Most people expect Apple to at least reveal it’s new Intel desktop next week. In any case, an update to the iPod line is about due. There’s an interesting post by Chris Seibold at Applematters that looks at Microsoft’s handling of the Zune project. I have to agree I don’t think Microsoft can win by out iPoding the iPod. In conclusion Chris states:

Pitching the Zune as a social networking device is much more appealing, Microsoft wont be telling users that their beloved iPod is lame, theyll be telling them that there is a new device on the block, something that works completely different! That the device happens to obsolete the iPod is a minor point not worth mentioning. That is how Microsoft can get around the iPod dominance. Otherwise the company is trying to make a sweeter version of sugar.

Maybe Microsoft should keep in mind that you don’t get ahead by following.

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